[GVMDE1KTNC] Decision Theory
|Institute:||Vállalkozásmenedzsment Intézet (1084 Budapest, Tavaszmezõ u. 15-17.)||Credit:||4|
|Type of classes:||Nappali||Language:||English||Semester:||2011/12/1|
|Responsible Teacher:||Dr. Nagy Viktor||Teacher(s):||Dr. Nagy Viktor;|
|Consultations (total/week):||Heti||Lectures:||1||Practice lectures:||1||Labs:||0||Consultations:||0|
|Type of Exam:||félévközi jegy|
|Aim of the subject:||Upon completion of this course students should understand the main concepts and be able to recognize basic biases and distortions in the process of human
decision making and know the fundamentals of decision theory.
|Requirements during the semester
part and final
oral/written exam etc.):
Students are required to pass two tests. The first one is based on the theory (50 points). As a second test students are given a specified problem to be solved
using Doctus (50 points).
|Topics of lectures/practices|
|1.||Normative and descriptive decision theory|
|3.||Mathematical Background. Games: Prisoner’s Dilemma, Battle of the Sexes, Leader, Game of Chicken, The Tragedy of the Commons, Rendezvous problem|
|4.||Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases|
|6.||Creativity and Psychology|
|8.||Decision Support Systems (DSS)|
|9.||The role of the human decision maker in DSS|
|10.||Rule-based reasoning (deduction) – Doctus Knowledge Based System|
|11.||Rule-based reasoning (deduction) – Doctus Knowledge Based System|
|12.||Case-based reasoning (induction) – Doctus Knowledge Based System|
|13.||Case-based reasoning (induction) – Doctus Knowledge Based System|
|Type of evaluation,
of grade, etc.
Grades in this course are calculated numerically based on total points of the two tests although the instructor may raise them by one grade based on the active participation in classes.
5 (excellent): 87 – 100 points
4 (good): 75 – 86 points
3 (satisfactory): 63 – 74 points
2 (pass): 51 – 62 points
1 (fail): 50 or less points
Should a student accumulate 50 or less points, an additional chance per test is given to him/her to meet the requirements.
|Compulsory literature:||This course does not require any textbooks. Students are provided with access to relevant articles and online materials as required.|
Simon, Herbert A. (1959): Theories of Decision-Making in Economics and Behavioral Science. In.: The American Economic Review, Vol. 49, No. 3
Tversky, Amos – Kahneman Daniel (1974): Judgement under Uncertanty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, New Series, Vol. 185, No.4157
March, James G. (1994): A Primer on Decision Making: How Decisions Happen. New York, NY: The Free Press
Schwartz, Barry (2004): The Paradox of Choice. Why more is less. Harper & Collins, New York, USA
Gladwell, Malcolm (2005): Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking. Little, Brown and Company, New York
Crainer, Stuart (1999): The 75 Greatest Management Decisions Ever Made: and the 21 of the Worst. Amcaom Publishing
Hastie, Reid – Dawes, Robyn M. (2010): Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. Sage Publications 2nd ed.