[GVXTG1BMNE] Social and Economic Forecast
|Institute:||Vállalkozásmenedzsment Intézet (1084 Budapest, Tavaszmezõ u. 15-17.)||Credit:||4|
|Type of classes:||Nappali||Language:||English||Semester:||2019/20/1|
|Responsible Teacher:||Dr. habil. Tick Andrea||Teacher(s):||Dr. habil. Tick Andrea;|
|Consultations (total/week):||Heti||Lectures:||2||Practice lectures:||1||Labs:||0||Consultations:||0|
|Type of Exam:||félévközi jegy|
|Aim of the subject:||The aim of this course is to familiarise students with the methods and practices of forecasting and report making related to economic systems,
subsystems and its social-societal environment: in its framework to get some practice in different domestic forecasts and some special
methodological questions of compiling social-societal forecasting. The course intends to draw the attention to the consequences of economic and
business decisions on the society itself and on special fields of a society.
|Requirements during the semester
part and final
oral/written exam etc.):
Students are required to attend all classes. (Active participations are required during the lessons).
Home work (essay) submitted by deadline and one written midterm test (13th week)
|Topics of lectures/practices|
Social and societal as well as economic forecasting concepts.
Social world models.
Futurology as science. What can a futurologist say about the future?
Social world models: Information society, knowledge-based society, interactive society and the EU.
The domestic information and knowledge-based society as well as the participative, interactive society (statistical analysis)
Social world models: Sustainable and fair society. Long-term and large scale forecasting of demographical processes.
Environmental problems and social responses and reactions. What can futurology give answers to?
The options and situation of domestic vocational education. Examination systems.
How to make a forecast?
The domestic sustainable and fair society (statistical analysis)
Which world model is optimal for the country?
The options and situation of domestic health and health funding systems. The forecasting basics of domestic health system politics and the restructuring of the system of retirement.
The domestic demographical processes and trends. How a country can influence demographical processes?
|6.||Domestic macroeconomic forecasts based on chaos theory. The duality of instability and economy|
The relationship of the environment and economy – multidisciplinary model analyses and system dynamic approach. Forecasting of processes, tendencies and cycles
The global climate change – the responsibility of the humans
|8.||Forecasting of turning points, Participative forecasting|
|9.||Forecasting relationships. Main approaches in futurology. The methods of forecasting (Mathematical-statistical, expert systems and modelling procedures)|
|10.||Methods of forecast making – mathematical-statistical, expert and modelling procedures|
|11.||Reliability in forecasting - methods of reliability analytics, analysis|
|12.||The phases of the forecasting process. (Preparatory work, compiling a forecast, documentation)|
The relationship of forecasting and decision making. International comparative analysis. World models. Elaboration of a forecast (corporate and/or public administration level)
The effects of future world models on corporate strategies
|14.||The responsibility of the futurologist. About Hungary´s social-economic future|
|Type of evaluation,
of grade, etc.
Grade in this course is based on total points/percentages of the test, homework assignment and student´s activity, creativity and preparation (i.e. the instructor also values the active/inactive participation in classes or the level of the homework).
5 (excellent): 86 – 100 %
4 (good): 75 – 85 %
3 (satisfactory): 63 – 74 %
2 (pass): 51 – 62 %
1 (fail): 50 or less %
Aspects of the final grade are the following:
- 30% - homework assignment
- 70% - midterm test
In case of absence (valid certification) on the test, there is a make-up test on the last week of the semester.
|Type of evaluation,
of grade, etc.
|Substitution (make up test) during the first 10 weekdays of the exam period.|
• László, E. (. (1977). Goals for Mankind: A Report to the Club of Rome on the New Horizons of Global Community. Hutchinson.
• Leontief, W. et.al. (1977). The future of the World Economy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Lesourne, J. et.al. (1979). Facing the Future. Paris: OECD.
• Levin, K., & Rich, D. (2017. november 2). Turning Point: Which Countries´ GHG Emissions Have Peaked? Which Will in the Future? Retreived: 2
February 2019. Source: World Resources Institute: https://www.wri.org/blog/2017/11/turning-point-which-countries-ghg-emissions-have-peaked-which-
• Meadows, D.et.al. (1972). The Limits to Growth. New York: Universe Books. http://www.donellameadows.org/wp-content/userfiles/Limits-to-
• Meadows, D.et.al. (2004). the Limits to growth, The 30-Year update. Chelsea Green Publishing, http://donellameadows.org/archives/a-synopsis-
• Mesarovic, M., & Pestel,, E. (1974). Mankind at the Turning Point: The Second Report to the Club of Rome. Hutchinson
• Tinberger, J. (1976). Reshaping the International Order. Dutton.
• UNEP. (2018). UN Environment´s 2018 Emissions Gap Report. Un Environment Programme. Letöltés dátuma: 2019. február 15, forrás:
• MOL Group. (2016). MOL GROUP 2030 Strategy, Enter tomorrow. Budapest: MOL Group.
• Ritchie, H, & Roser, M;. (2017). CO₂ and other Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Letöltés dátuma: 2019. február 7, forrás: Our World in Data:
• Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. (2017). Our World in Data. Letöltés dátuma: 2019. február 10, forrás: https://ourworldindata.org/:
• The Guardian. (2018. december 5). ´Brutal news´: global carbon emissions jump to all-time high in 2018. The Guardian, p.1. Letöltés dátuma:
2019. február 25, forrás: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/05/brutal-news-global-carbon-emissions-jump-to-all-time-high-in-2018
of the subject :
|The subject coordinator must ensure that the goals, objectives, content and scheduling and assignment requirements of the subject are in accordance
with curriculum, the course requirements and at the same time compiles with the changing needs and demand.